Vegetos

Abstract

As a versatile and highly ornamental tree species, Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala is widely distributed in the contemporary ages (1950–2000). Predicting its potential geographic distribution not only has great significance for its protection, but also provides theoretical support for forecasting other endangered species geographic distribution. In this study, MaxEnt model combined the GIS spatial analysis techniques were used to predict the potential geographic distribution of Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala from the 2030s to the 2070s. The reasons for the changes of geographic distribution were analyzed based on the future climate characteristics of China. The present results showed that Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala had different levels of distribution in China from 2030s to 2070s. The geographic distribution of Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala was mainly in the Northeast and North China. However, the mainly geographic distribution of Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala had changed because of the effects of temperature, precipitation and other climatic factors.

In special, the distribution was moved to eastern parts of Shandong, parts of Hubei, the bordering parts of Jiangsu and Anhui provinces.

Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala suitable areas in the country had shown a obviously reduction trend with the advance of years, And the future climate of China will be not conducive to the growth of

Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala. The information got in this study will be usefull for the Acer tataricum subsp. ginnala protection in China.